"The five studies GAO reviewed that used microsimulation models to estimate the effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) on employer-sponsored coverage generally predicted little change in prevalence in the near term, while results of employer surveys varied more widely. The five microsimulation study estimates ranged from a net decrease of 2.5 percent to a net increase of 2.7 percent in the total number of individuals with employer-sponsored coverage within the first 2 years of implementation of key PPACA provisions, affecting up to about 4 million individuals... Longer-term predictions of prevalence of employer-sponsored coverage were fewer and more uncertain, and four microsimulation studies estimated that from about 2 million to 6 million fewer individuals would have employer-sponsored coverage in the absence of the individual mandate compared to with the mandate."

"As a result of the Democrats' employer mandate, many employers who offer coverage to their employees will be left with a choice: continue offering health insurance (which is expected to become more expensive because of the Democrats' health care law) to their employees or pay a penalty for not offering such coverage. Unfortunately... it will be far cheaper for employers to simply drop their health insurance and pay the fine, because the costs of meeting the burdensome mandates required for health insurance plans far exceed the price of the fine...

The Democrats' health care law contains a number of policies that create perverse financial incentives for employers to stop offering health insurance to their employees, perhaps none more so than the employer mandate."

"CBO [Congressional Budget Office] and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) continue to expect that the Affordable Care Act (ACA)—the health care legislation enacted in March 2010—will lead to a small reduction in the number of people receiving employment-based health insurance...

As reflected in CBO's latest baseline projections, the two agencies now anticipate that, because of the ACA, about 3 million to 5 million fewer people, on net, will obtain coverage through their employer each year from 2019 through 2022 than would have been the case under prior law."

"Overall, 30 percent of employers will definitely or probably stop offering ESI [employer-sponsored insurance] in the years after 2014.

Among employers with a high awareness of reform, this proportion increases to more than 50 percent, and upward of 60 percent will pursue some alternative to traditional ESI.

At least 30 percent of employers would gain economically from dropping coverage even if they completely compensated employees for the change through other benefit offerings or higher salaries...

The propensity of employers to make big changes to ESI increases with awareness largely because shifting away will be economically rational not only for many of them but also for their lower-income employees, given the law's incentives."

"Amid the political, legislative and judicial uncertainty, most employers are steadfast in their commitment to keeping active health care benefits as a central component of their employee value proposition. Through 2015, most employers will remain focused on optimally managing the design and delivery of their programs…

While many employers are considering their options after the Exchanges open in 2014, the majority of large companies today remain committed to the optimal design and delivery of their health care programs...

In the end, few companies plan to either discontinue their health care programs or shift strategy to a defined contribution option by 2014 or 2015. All signs indicate that companies will continue to focus on the most effective ways to control rising costs and improve employee health and well-being."

"We find little evidence that the ACA will negatively affect small firms, and, instead, we find evidence of significant benefits for these employers and their workers. The law expands coverage options for small firms while limiting the new requirements imposed on this group. The smallest firms will see a significant increase in offer rates under the ACA, and firms of all sizes will see substantial savings on premium contributions."

"The microsimulation predicts that PPACA will increase insurance offer rates among small businesses from 53 to 77 percent for firms with ten or fewer workers, from 71 to 90 percent for firms with 11 to 25 workers, and from 90 percent to nearly 100 percent for firms with 26 to 100 workers... The increase in employer offer rates is driven by workers' demand for insurance, which increases due to an individual mandate requiring all people to obtain insurance policies."